【前沿追踪】战略前瞻顶刊文献分享

战略前瞻文献分享

战略前瞻是组织为奠定未来竞争优势而进行准确布局的能力，使组织能够在外部环境的动态和复杂变化中灵活开发新产品、实施动态技术创新和优化组织结构，增强了组织的未来应对能力和适应性。本次推送的五篇文献对战略前瞻性的最新研究进行分享。Strategic foresight and business model innovation: The sequential mediating role of sensemaking and learning一文中，作者通过对146名芬兰企业的高级管理人员进行问卷调查，实证检验了战略前瞻对商业模式创新的显著正向影响。在意义建构和学习的依次调节下，战略前瞻能够克服认知惯性和结构性障碍，通过影响相关行为者的认知框架和灵活调整企业价值创造活动促进商业模式创新。Building dynamic capabilities to cope with environmental uncertainty: The role of strategic foresight一文通过定性与定量研究的混合方法，验证了战略前瞻对企业战略灵活性和决策理性两种动态能力的积极影响，并提出在环境不确定性影响下正向调节了企业战略柔性，该研究开发的战略前瞻预测工具和研究结论不仅有助于管理者评估企业前瞻能力，还能够指导他们塑造必要的动态能力，以应对复杂多变的商业挑战。Dynamic interactions among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies一文对知识管理、战略前瞻和新兴技术之间的相互作用展开了叙事性综述回顾，并提出了三者动态交互的作用框架和未来研究展望，研究认为企业可以通过该框架更好地理解动态互动，有助于开展创新行动的决策和强化面向未来的创新。Foresight, sensemaking, and new product development: Constructing meanings for the future一文通过扎根案例研究方法，探究了意义构建、前瞻和新产品开发之间的相互影响。研究表明前瞻涉及对过去和现在的阐述和理解，同时也是对未来的思考过程，能够逐步开发新的集体心智模型，从而建立关于新兴市场和产品的领先认知。同时，在新产品开发过程中，具有面向未来的集体目标又增强了内部一致性。Strategic foresight for agriculture: Past ghosts, present challenges, and future opportunities一文介绍了最近在《全球粮食安全》杂志上发表的六篇文章，强调了战略前瞻性有助于创造事前预测和事后分析结合的良性循环，通过探索当下不同的投资决策，最大限度地发挥影响农业和粮食系统未来理想结果的潜力。

PART.1

Strategic foresight and business model innovation: The sequential mediating role of sensemaking and learning

战略前瞻与商业模式创新:意义建构和学习的依次中介作用

Keywords: Business model innovation；Strategic foresight；Sensemaking；Learning；Mediation analysis

关键词：商业模式创新；战略前瞻；意义建构；学习；中介分析

Abstract：

Foresight is fundamental to strategy scholarship and can affect organizational outcomes such as innovation. However, few attempts have been made to link foresight with business model innovation (BMI). Therefore, it remains empirically unclear whether and through which mechanisms strategic foresight influences BMI development. To address these shortcomings, this study analyzes the direct effect of strategic foresight on BMI and the mediating effects of sensemaking and learning. The data were derived from surveying a sample of senior managers at 146 Finnish organizations (both large firms and SMEs) and the analysis was conducted by applying structural equation modeling. The findings provide evidence of a direct association between strategic foresight and BMI and suggest a partial mediating effect of learning and, more importantly, sequential mediating effects of sensemaking and learning. This study offers valuable insights into the relationships among BMI, strategic foresight, sensemaking, and learning. It enriches theory and practice by providing empirical support for the direct effect of strategic foresight on BMI, uncovering the multifaceted roles of the mechanisms that influence BMI, and proposing a model that could help managers handle barriers to BMI robustly and systematically.

摘要：

前瞻是战略学术的基础，可以影响创新等组织成果。然而，很少有人尝试将前瞻性与商业模式创新联系起来。因此，从经验上看，战略前瞻是否以及通过何种机制影响商业模式创新仍不清楚。为了解决这些缺点，本研究分析了战略前瞻对商业模式创新的直接影响以及意义建构和学习的中介作用。这些数据来自对146名芬兰组织（包括大公司和中小企业）高级经理的抽样调查，分析是通过应用结构方程模型进行的。这些发现提供了战略前瞻和商业模式创新之间直接联系的证据，并表明学习的部分中介效应，更重要的是，意义建构和学习的依次调节作用。这项研究为商业模式创新、战略前瞻、意义建构和学习之间的关系提供了有价值的见解。它丰富了理论和实践，为战略前瞻对商业模式创新的直接影响提供了实证支持，揭示了影响商业模式创新的机制的多方面作用，并提出了一个可以帮助管理者稳健而系统地处理商业模式创新障碍的模型。

参考文献：

Moqaddamerad S, Ali M, 2024. Strategic foresight and business model innovation: The sequential mediating role of sensemaking and learning[J]. Technological Forecasting And Social Change, 200: 123095.

PART.2

Building dynamic capabilities to cope with environmental uncertainty: The role of strategic foresight

建立应对环境不确定性的动态能力:战略远见的作用

Keywords: Strategic foresight；Dynamic capabilities；Environmental uncertainty；Strategic flexibility；Decision rationality

关键词：战略前瞻；动态能力；环境不确定性；战略灵活性；决策合理性

Abstract：

Increasing environmental uncertainty poses significant challenges for organizations. Although scholars generally agree that companies require dynamic capabilities to flexibly respond to and shape uncertain environments, only little empirical research has been conducted on the factors that facilitate the development of these capabilities. This study addresses this gap and introduces strategic foresight as an important antecedent of firms’ dynamic capabilities. The paper investigates the impact of strategic foresight on two distinct types of dynamic capabilities, namely strategic flexibility and decision rationality, and how the influence of strategic foresight is moderated by the degree of environmental uncertainty. We test our hypotheses by adopting a mixed-methods approach, using both qualitative information gathered trough five expert interviews, as well as survey data collected from 79 managers familiar with strategic foresight practices. The obtained results indicate a significant positive impact of strategic foresight on firms’ strategic flexibility and decision rationality. Furthermore, this study finds that environmental uncertainty strengthens the positive effect of strategic foresight on strategic flexibility. Contributions to strategic foresight research and managerial practice for firms trying to cope with continuously increasing levels of environmental uncertainty are discussed.

摘要：

日益增加的环境不确定性给组织带来了巨大挑战。尽管学者们普遍认为公司需要动态能力来灵活应对和塑造不确定的环境，但只有很少的实证研究对促进这些能力发展的因素进行了研究。本研究填补了这一空白，并引入战略远见作为企业动态能力的重要前提。本文研究了战略预见对两种不同类型的动态能力的影响，即战略灵活性和决策理性，以及战略预见的影响如何受到环境不确定性程度的调节。我们采用一种混合方法来测试我们的假设，既使用了通过五次专家访谈收集的定性信息，也使用了从79名熟悉战略远见实践的经理那里收集的调查数据。研究结果表明，战略远见对企业的战略灵活性和决策合理性有显著的积极影响。此外，本研究发现，环境不确定性增强了战略远见对战略柔性的积极影响。讨论了对试图应对不断增加的环境不确定性水平的企业的战略前瞻性研究和管理实践的贡献。

参考文献：

Haarhaus T, Liening A, 2020. Building Dynamic Capabilities To Cope With Environmental Uncertainty: The Role Of Strategic Foresight[J]. Technological Forecasting And Social Change, 155: 120033.

PART.3

Dynamic interactions among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies

知识管理、战略远见和新兴技术之间的动态互动

Keywords：Innovation；Technology；Knowledge management；Future studies；Strategic intelligence；Strategic foresight；Corporate foresight；Future knowledge

关键词：创新；技术；知识管理；未来研究；战略情报；战略前瞻；企业前瞻；未来知识

Abstract：

Purpose：This paper aims to discuss the dynamic interactions among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies, resulting in a framework that can help companies to shape these interactions for achieving positive outcomes.

Design/methodology/approach：This conceptual paper is based on prior literature streams, which were interrelated through an abductive research process. This iterative conceptualization approach led to the formation of testable propositions that advance the understanding on the interactions among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies.

Findings：The framework demonstrates the existence of an actions cycle between strategic foresight and knowledge management through a constructivist perspective, where one can improve the other. These interactions can be useful both for the development of emerging technologies and for identifying these innovations in market that can be applied in companies. Hence, all these dynamic interactions do not point to a hegemonic relationship of one construct over the others, but for the value equality among them.

Originality/value：Although current literature points to the existence of relationships among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies, the dynamism inherent in these interactions as well as their positive effects for companies' results are not properly discussed. This paper fills such a gap and proposes directions for future research.

摘要：

目的：本文旨在讨论知识管理、战略远见和新兴技术之间的动态互动，形成一个框架，帮助企业塑造这些互动，以实现积极的成果。

设计/方法/途径：这份概念性的论文是基于先前的文献流，这些文献流通过溯因研究过程相互关联。这种迭代概念化方法导致了可测试命题的形成，这些命题促进了对知识管理、战略远见和新兴技术之间的相互作用的理解。

研究结果：该框架通过建构主义的观点证明了战略远见和知识管理之间存在一个行动循环，其中一个可以改进另一个。这些互动对于新兴技术的开发和识别市场中可应用于公司的创新都是有用的。因此，所有这些动态互动并不指向一种结构对其他结构的霸权关系，而是指向它们之间的价值平等。

原创性/价值：尽管当前的文献指出了知识管理、战略远见和新兴技术之间的关系，但这些相互作用的内在动力以及它们对公司业绩的积极影响没有得到适当的讨论。本文填补了这一空白，并提出了未来的研究方向。

参考文献：

Nascimento L Da S, Reichert F M, Janissek-Muniz R, Zawislak P A, 2021. Dynamic interactions among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies[J/OL]. Journal Of Knowledge Management, 25(2): 275-297.

PART.4

Foresight, sensemaking, and new product development: Constructing meanings for the future

前瞻、意义创造和新产品开发：构建未来的意义

Keywords：Sensemaking；Strategic foresight；New product development；User foresights；Sensefacilitating；Market and technological change

关键词：意义建构；战略前瞻；新产品开发；用户前瞻；感官促进；市场和技术变革

Abstract：

Recent studies have emphasized the need to merge the divergent streams of foresight and sensemaking and to empirically explore their mutual influences. Accordingly, this paper builds upon previous work to expand understanding of the relationship between foresight and sensemaking and its role in affecting cognitive group dynamics, especially during the early stage of the new product development (NPD) amidst technological changes and market shifts. We adopt a systematic coding procedure of our empirical data drawn upon a longitudinal study of an entire NPD project as it unfolded in real time and in situ from its early stages through to its market commercialisation. Thus, the contribution of this paper is twofold. First, it extends previous foresight-sensemaking research by illuminating for the first time the role of sensefacilitating, a new cognitive mechanism that enhances the gradual development of new collective future-oriented mental models. Second, it answers the call for further investigation on the impact of foresight and sensemaking in NPD by showing that the cross-fertilization of foresight and sensemaking enables the collective discovery and formal diffusion of user foresights, which in turn inform the development of meaningful and novel brand worlds early in the NPD process.

摘要：

最近的研究强调，有必要融合不同的预见和感知流，并从经验上探索它们的相互影响。因此，本文以先前的工作为基础，旨在扩大对远见和明智决策之间的关系及其在影响认知群体动态中的作用的理解，尤其是在技术变革和市场变化中新产品开发的早期阶段（NPD）。我们采用了经验数据的系统编码程序，这些数据来自对整个NPD项目的纵向研究，该项目从早期阶段到市场商业化都是实时和现场展开的。因此，本文的贡献是双重的。首先，它首次阐明了感知促进的作用，这是一种新的认知机制，有助于促进新的面向未来的集体心智模型的逐步发展，从而扩展了先前的远见感知研究。第二，它响应了进一步调查前瞻和意义创造在NPD的影响的呼吁，表明前瞻和意义创造的交叉融合使用户前瞻得以集体发现和正式传播，这反过来又为NPD进程早期有意义和新颖的品牌世界的发展提供了信息。

参考文献：

Sakellariou E, Vecchiato R, 2022. Foresight, sensemaking, and new product development: Constructing meanings for the future[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 184: 121945.

PART.5

Strategic foresight for agriculture: Past ghosts, present challenges, and future opportunities

农业战略展望: 过去的幽灵、现在的挑战和未来的机遇

Keywords：Strategic foresight；Agricultural research；Food systems；Plausible futures；Investment

关键词：战略前瞻；农业研究；食品系统；可信的未来；投资

Abstract：

Strategic foresight is systematic means to explore plausible futures. In the agricultural context, strategic foresight allows decision-makers to explore how alternative investments in agriculture research may function given anticipated futures associated with a variety of drivers ranging from climate change to increasing wealth to a changing policy environment. This paper presents an overview and context for six recently published articles in Global Food Security that comprise a virtual special issue on agricultural futures. Each of the papers takes a distinct perspective and addresses key issues from how past trends drive future outcomes to specific commodity systems to issues around employment and rural transformation. While each of the included papers stands on its own merits, the collection presents a unique opportunity to unpack the role of investment in agriculture research from a variety of perspectives. Collectively, the special issue offers insights to support current and future in-vestment planning to better target desired outcomes associated with long-term agricultural research.

摘要：

战略预见是探索看似合理的未来的系统手段。在农业方面，战略远见使决策者能够探讨农业研究的替代投资如何发挥作用，因为预期的未来与从气候变化到财富增加到不断变化的政策环境等各种驱动因素有关。本文介绍了最近在《全球粮食安全》杂志上发表的六篇文章的概况和背景，其中包括一期关于农业期货的虚拟专刊。每份文件都采取了不同的视角，从过去的趋势如何推动未来的结果到具体的初级商品体系，再到就业和农村转型问题，讨论了各种关键问题。虽然所收录的每一篇论文都有其自身的优点，但这些论文集提供了一个独特的机会，可以从各种角度揭示投资在农业研究中的作用。总的来说，这一特别问题为支持当前和未来的投资规划提供了见解，以便更好地针对与长期农业研究有关的预期成果。

参考文献：

Prager S D, Wiebe K, 2021. Strategic foresight for agriculture: Past ghosts, present challenges, and future opportunities[J]. Global Food Security, 28: 100489.

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图文：郝康绮

编辑：李发珍

审核：宁靓、姜忠辉